Softs and Super Softs ok?
First of all you have to recognize that very little of what matters in Formula One right now is happening on the track. While I’d be gratified by a Hamilton win if only because I think he’s the best passer in the sport currently and Rosberg is basically a cut throat asshole who has no respect for his team or his team mates, I don’t really care if he finishes 2nd (clinching a win for his 2nd Drivers’ Championship) or not.
Nope, as always the big story is the money.
CVC, the private equity group (think Bain Capital) that along with Bernie Ecclestone (who’d be the biggest sleazebag in sports except the competition is so fierce) who organized them, own a controlling interest in Formula One and have been looking to cash out by either floating an IPO or finding a bigger sucker for at least 2 years now. What’s been holding them back is the barely disguised corruption that permeates it, from the sweetheart deals with some tracks and the extortion of others, to the flagrant bribery of the Big 5 (Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, and Williams) 3 of whom (Ferrari, Red Bull, and McLaren) get the majority with Mercedes and Williams coasting on their “historic contributions” despite Ferrari, McLaren, and Williams having fielded inferior cars for nearly a decade, also conveniently packing the “Strategy Group” that is supposed to represent all the teams, to the ‘no bid’ contracts for well known companies like Pirelli (tires) and lesser known ones like McLaren (who provide all the engine control electronics), to the sponsorships bribes and kickbacks Drivers are routinely expected to provide their teams, to the fact that Ecclestone bribed a Banker to undervalue the shares held by a media company so that CVC could pick them up at a discount when the Banker’s Bank conveniently called the note they were collateral for.
Formula One is a House of Cards floating in a cesspit and the smart money is looking to get out while the getting is good.
So what’s really interesting is seeing which way they fall.
Take engines for instance- there are only 3 suppliers at the moment. Mercedes rule, Renault drools, and Ferrari is an underpowered joke and has been for years. The only reason for the Williams resurgence is that they inked a deal to use the tri-star. McLaren will be debuting the new Honda which may or may not be a gamble, they hired away Alonso who made even the Scuderia’s bricks seem racy as insurance and they’d be fools to dump Button (who’s not quite as good at what Alonso does as Alonso is, but is better than most) in favor of Magnussen who has shown their hardware as the crap it inherently is. Even Renault doesn’t think that new rules (which Bernie likes because… underpants) will be beneficial. Ferrari of course longs to dust off a few of their old, good designs but the bottom line is that engines have gone from £5m to £25m and changing the rules will simply result in another round of development costs that the Littles (Lotus, Force India, Sauber) can’t afford.
Here’s what they spend now- Ferrari and Red Bull around £250m (Red Bull also kicks in about £120m for Toro Rossa); Mercedes and McLaren around £200m; Lotus, Williams, Sauber, and Force India between £100m-£140m. Marussia struggled along on £70m while Caterham (which will race this weekend because of a crowd-sourcing campaign Bernie likened to begging) has just fired everybody after 7 weeks with no pay so they can at least collect unemployment.
If the Littles leave, which they’re likely to do if all they can afford is “Customer Cars” built by the Big 5, Bernie is left with a field of a dozen. Red Bull and Ferrari have indicated they’re willing to add a car which would make it 14. Add Haas Racing (likely in a purchased chassis) and you have 16, but not until ’16 and while the threshold at Yas Marina is exactly that before contract default most tracks have a 14 car minimum so Bernie is just scraping by.
Hardly conductive to that big cash buyout he and CVC are anticipating.
So Bernie has back-tracked on the rhetoric a bit and in negotiations that have been happening this week the Littles have seen at least some encouraging signs.
Me? I think he’s stringing them along.
Michael Schumacher is paralysed with memory and speech problems, Jules Bianchi is off a respirator and breathing on his own. Romain Grosjean has signed again with Lotus, Perez will be staying with Force India.
Red Bull is starting from the back of the grid once again because of a non-compliant front wing. Grosjean has a 20 grid penalty for engine replacement but will start 18 with a stop & go to serve.
If you’re totally into the horse race the groupings are these-
- 1 & 2, Hamilton and Rosberg
- 4 – 6 Vettel, Alonso, and Bottas
- 7 – 9 Button, Massa, and Hulkenberg with an outside shot.
In Constructors 3 & 4 potentially Williams and Ferrari could change.
We start racing again March 15th, just in time to totally deprive me of sleep during the NCAA Basketball Tournament, in Australia. Mercedes will have 4 engines, Renault 3 (if Caterham survives), Ferrari 2, and Honda 1.
Pretty tables below.
Starting Grid
| Grid | Driver | Team | Q-Time | Q-Laps |
| 1 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes | 1:40.480 | 13 |
| 2 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1:40.866 | 12 |
| 3 | Valtteri Bottas | Williams-Mercedes | 1:41.025 | 18 |
| 4 | Felipe Massa | Williams-Mercedes | 1:41.119 | 20 |
| 5 | Daniil Kvyat | STR-Renault | 1:41.908 | 18 |
| 6 | Jenson Button | McLaren-Mercedes | 1:41.964 | 18 |
| 7 | Kimi Räikkönen | Ferrari | 1:42.236 | 15 |
| 8 | Fernando Alonso | Ferrari | 1:42.866 | 19 |
| 9 | Kevin Magnussen | McLaren-Mercedes | 1:42.198 | 13 |
| 10 | Jean-Eric Vergne | STR-Renault | 1:42.207 | 12 |
| 11 | Sergio Perez | Force India-Mercedes | 1:42.239 | 15 |
| 12 | Nico Hulkenberg | Force India-Mercedes | 1:42.384 | 12 |
| 13 | Adrian Sutil | Sauber-Ferrari | 1:43.074 | 14 |
| 14 | Esteban Gutierrez | Sauber-Ferrari | 1:42.819 | 8 |
| 15 | Pastor Maldonado | Lotus-Renault | 1:42.860 | 8 |
| 16 | Kamui Kobayashi | Caterham-Renault | 1:44.540 | 7 |
| 17 | Will Stevens | Caterham-Renault | 1:45.095 | 8 |
| 18 | Romain Grosjean | Lotus-Renault | 1:42.768 | 8 |
| 19 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull Racing-Renault | 1:41.267 | 12 |
| 20 | Sebastian Vettel | Red Bull Racing-Renault | 1:41.893 | 17 |
Driver Standings
| Rank | Driver | Team | Points |
| 1 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 334 |
| 2 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes | 317 |
| 3 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull Racing-Renault | 214 |
| 4 | Sebastian Vettel | Red Bull Racing-Renault | 159 |
| 5 | Fernando Alonso | Ferrari | 157 |
| 6 | Valtteri Bottas | Williams-Mercedes | 156 |
| 7 | Jenson Button | McLaren-Mercedes | 106 |
| 8 | Felipe Massa | Williams-Mercedes | 98 |
| 9 | Nico Hulkenberg | Force India-Mercedes | 80 |
| 10 | Kevin Magnussen | McLaren-Mercedes | 55 |
| 11 | Kimi Räikkönen | Ferrari | 53 |
| 12 | Sergio Perez | Force India-Mercedes | 47 |
| 13 | Jean-Eric Vergne | STR-Renault | 22 |
| 14 | Romain Grosjean | Lotus-Renault | 8 |
| 15 | Daniil Kvyat | STR-Renault | 8 |
| 16 | Pastor Maldonado | Lotus-Renault | 2 |
| 17 | Jules Bianchi | Marussia-Ferrari | 2 |
Constructor Standings
| Rank | Team | Points |
| 1 | Mercedes | 651 |
| 2 | Red Bull Racing-Renault | 373 |
| 3 | Williams-Mercedes | 254 |
| 4 | Ferrari | 210 |
| 5 | McLaren-Mercedes | 161 |
| 6 | Force India-Mercedes | 127 |
| 7 | STR-Renault | 30 |
| 8 | Lotus-Renault | 10 |
| 9 | Marussia-Ferrari | 2 |
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