Some Wall Street investors made money as the mortgage market boomed; others profited when it fell apart.
Having reaped big gains during both of those turns, Greg Lippmann, a former star trader at Deutsche Bank, is now catching the next upswing: buying the same securities built from mortgages that he bet against before the financial crisis erupted.
Mr. Lippmann is joined by other big-money investors - mutual funds like Fidelity as well as hedge funds - in riding a wave of interest in the same complex loan pools that nearly washed away the financial system.
The attraction is the price. Some mortgage bonds are so cheap that even in the worst forecasts, with home prices falling as much as 10 percent and foreclosures rising, investors say they can still make money. [..]
Yet the tide could turn again and wipe out investors. Chief among the risks is Europe: the Continent's banks still hold a significant amount of United States mortgage securities, and if they are forced to sell assets, it could wreak havoc on the market.
Washington is a question mark, too. If banks have to pay for loans they issued under dubious circumstances, it would be a home run for investors, who could receive full payment for a mortgage in a security they bought at a discount. But if borrowers whose houses are worth less than their mortgages are able to reduce their principals on a large scale, bond investors could suffer because the securities would be worth even less than they paid. [..]
As for Mr. Lippmann, his reputation has made it both easier and more difficult to get commitments from investors. Some are impressed by his well-publicized bet against the mortgage market; others are turned off by his high profile in an industry known for secrecy and discretion.
LibreMax, made up of several members of Mr. Lippmann's team from Deutsche Bank, has raised more than $1 billion in a little over a year. His performance has been relatively strong during a period of market turmoil - up 2 percent last year and a little more than 6 percent since launching.
The Times is quoting Greg Lippmann, the patient zero of subprime? If the SEC investigation of Deutsche Bank were remotely serious, Lippmann would be in serious trouble. What Greg Zuckerman and Michael Lewis have written about them in their books on subprime shorts alone is grist for a good civil suit. And even worse, the headline implies that there is a market for newly issued non-governemnt guaranteed bonds (wrong, that's dead) when this is about speculation in vintage subprime.
The funniest bit is that the Times is acting as if the fact that Lippmann is talking up the market is a tip of sorts. As one of my buddies pointed out long ago, what you worry about when an investor talks up his book is not that he is trying to get more people in to raise the price, but he is trying to get more people in so he can complete his exit.
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